Monday, June 11, 2012

2012 French Open Obituary: Why US Players Don't Win Any More in Paris

With top-ranked American Mary Fish electing to withdraw from Roland Garros, eight US players took their place in the first round of French Open.

Andy Roddick, Ryan Harrison, Donald Young, James Blake and Sam Querrey all suffered first round exits, with John Isner and qualifiers Jessie Levine and Brian Baker bowing out in the second round.

Now, if like myself, you’re British, this relative lack of success is nothing new, so on behalf of those this side of the Atlantic—“Welcome to our world!”

A rejuvenated Andre Agassi was the last American to the “Coupe des Mousquetaires” back in 1999. Before that, Jim Courier won the title in 1991 and ’92 and Michael Chang was champion in 1989.

So, for a country with the number of players, financial resources and history of the USA, last week’s results were a major disappointment.

So what are the reasons for this lack of success?        

WELL FIRSTLY, A LITTLE Q & A

QUESTION: What is the best surface to grow up playing tennis on if you’re male and want to make it as a professional tennis player?

ANSWER: I’m coming to that!

QUESTION: Which outdoor surface did Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer grow up learning their tennis on?

1235828_crop_340x234 Jim Courier 1991 & '92 French Open Champion
Gary M. Prior/Getty Images

ANSWER: European Red clay.

QUESTION: What’s the pre-dominant outdoor surface most North American players grow up on?

ANSWER: Hard courts and the occasional Har-Tru (green or grey) clay court.

So is there a direct relationship to the type of surface male tennis players learn the game on and those who make it into the ATP Top-100 and do well at the French Open?

AROUND THE WORLD OF CLAY COURTS

SPAIN: Most Spanish men, of which there were 13 in the Top-100 at the end of 2011, learn their trade playing outdoors on red clay. There are some hard courts in Spain, but by far the most used surface in the country is red clay, on which most of its ITF Futures and all its ATP Tour events are played. (Except, of course, the Madrid Masters for which tournament owner Ion Tiriac invented BLUE clay!)

FRANCE: Home of the French Open at Roland Garros—what percentage of tennis courts in France do you think are red clay? "100 percent," I hear you thinking to yourself. Well you’d be wrong—only 14 percent. The majority of courts in France are hard courts. However, the surface on which its major championships are played, and which it regards as its national surface, is “Terre Battue”—baked earth in English, commonly known as red clay.

Most of the public courts in France, for maintenance and cost reasons, are hard courts. However, most of the private clubs, which can afford ground staff, have red clay.  And if you don’t believe me, just ask anyone French, or like myself, spend years there competing.

2055339_crop_340x234 Michael Chang 1989 French Open champion
Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

GERMANY: Almost every outdoor tennis court in Germany, all of its extensive inter-club competitions, ITF and ATP outdoor events are played on red clay.

SOUTH AMERICA: Once again—almost every outdoor tennis court and major tournament in Argentina and Brazil is red clay.

Without wanting to bore you further with the details, it’s obvious that red clay is the surface on which most of the players in the Top-100 learned to play, compete and gain their world rankings.

QUESTION: Is there a difference between red clay and Har-Tru clay courts?

ANSWER: Yes, Har-Tru courts play more like hard courts than red clay. The ball comes through faster and lower than red clay, and it’s more difficult to slide on Har-Tru than it is on red clay.

AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE

Here’s what current Florida resident Craig Edwards, who attended Pepperdine University before playing professionally in the late 1970s, and going on to coach players including myself and the Bryan Twins had to say, when I asked him which was the best surface to learn the game on.

“For a few reasons I think clay is the right answer. Probably the biggest reason at this point is that the conditions of tennis on all surfaces (due to rackets, balls, and the surfaces) now have reduced the advantages of net play.

The good old days of serve and volley, chip and charge tennis, are a thing of the past. Even Wimbledon has been turned into a baseline slug fest! On almost all surfaces now, it’s a huge goundshot or serve that forces up a weak reply, which is then taken out of the air with a drive volley, that wins players the point. So you need great groundshots more than ever now, and it seems impossible to be successful at any level without that as your game’s foundation.

52972727_crop_340x234 Andre Agassi
Michael Steele/Getty Images

Today around 23 main tour events are on played on clay, 37 on hard or indoor, and 5 on grass.

Also in my opinion it’s much easier to learn to slide (on clay) at a young age, than to learn it later in your career. I imagine the guys who learned on clay also played on a lot of different surfaces so they learned great balance from that.  Even back in my day I always thought you were better off learning the game on clay. You had to hit the ball hard and consistently to become a great player on clay. If you filled that out with power serving and some kind of volley skills you then had the whole package. If you learned a clever counter punching, or quick attack serve volley and chip and charge hard court game, you might never develop the passing shots and power groundshots.”

And here’s what top British Performance coach and former professional player Andy Evans told me when I asked him what he thought was the best surface to learn the game on.

“The best surface to learn tennis on has to be clay, because on it all the technical, tactical, physical and mental parts of the game are tested to the maximum. When I lived in Germany and spent a solid 6 months playing on clay it improved my game immensely because I hit a load more balls there than playing on grass, which was predominant in the summer months playing in the Britain.

In Britain we just don't have a style or way to play tennis because of all the different surfaces, unlike in most parts of Europe where in the summer clay is the only surface to play on.

The problem in Great Britain is that the clubs are driven by people who haven't played tennis, and their older members prefer playing on synthetic grass!

1241959_crop_340x234 Jim Courier
Gary M. Prior/Getty Images

FINAL QUESTIONS: Why are there so few red clay courts in North America and Great Britain?

ANSWER: Because the outdoor surface they generally play on reflects that of their major championships – hard courts in North America and GRASS! - in Great Britain.

Now is that a problem for players from those countries trying to win the French Open or even making it into the world's Top-100? - you bet it is – and until the problem is addressed, and players begin learning to play the game on a level playing field, the situation is unlikely to improve.


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Sunday, June 10, 2012

AFC South Devil's Advocate: What If Andrew Luck Was a Mistake for the Colts?

Welcome back to the Devil's Advocate!

I tried this series early on in my tenure here at Bleacher Report, and while I was satisfied with the results, it was clear to me that many readers just didn't get the concept. I temporarily retired the feature while I tried to work out how to make it more accessible.

Today it's back, and I want to start with a concept that should be easy to understand. I am not going to write an article called, "Why the Colts Did a Good Job Drafting Andrew Luck." That article would be subtitled, "Every Draft Article Written for the Past Six Months, with the Exception of People Trying to Stir the Pot About RG3."

No, there is really no reason to lay out why Luck was a great pick. However, just for the sake of argument, let's talk about what happens if he isn't a great pick.

The Devil's Advocate in its purest form.

There are basically three believable ways that Andrew Luck can fail. Obviously, he could wig out a la Jeff George or Ryan Leaf, but not even the Devil is going to try to convince you that's going to happen. No, Luck is about as sound as a gold-backed greenback.

That doesn't mean it's impossible for him to fail.

1. Luck Could Get Hurt

While it would be hard to fault the Colts for drafting Luck even if he got hurt, he is a mobile quarterback.

No, he's not likely to go hurdling down field like Randall Cunningham, but he will take off and run. Stanford readjusted the offense last year to keep him in the pocket more, but when the NFL rush comes at him, Luck may bolt.

An injury-plagued career would be the worst-case scenario for Indy. If it turns out that Luck just isn't a good player, the Colts will know soon enough. It only takes a couple of seasons to know if your first-round pick is a bust.

If Luck starts getting dinged, however, the Colts could waste four or five seasons hoping for him to stay healthy. Winning with instability at the quarterback position is difficult at best, and it could lead to a new Dark Age for fans of the Horse.

2. Luck Could Be Good...ish

Drew Bledsoe had a wonderful NFL career. He took his team to the Super Bowl, won a big playoff game for the Patriots late in his career, compiled huge volume totals and went to Pro Bowls.

Tom Brady was better, but Bledsoe never had to deal with the pressure of that comparison until he was already on the way out.

I believe the floor for Luck's career is Bledsoe-esque. The Colts probably don't have to worry about him being a total bust, but what if he never becomes more than pretty darn OK?

The pressure of following Peyton Manning and never becoming a true star could be tremendous. Luck will always have the comparison hanging over him in a way that few men this side of Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers could ever understand.

If Luck turns out to be just a good solid quarterback and not a true star, neither he nor the Colts will live it down. He will always be a disappointment.

3. Griffin or Manning Could Be Incredible

Let's say Andrew Luck is better than Bledsoe. Let's say he's more like Eli Manning. He has a nice career, maybe he even lucks into a ring along the way. There's no way the Colts can lose, right?

Wrong. If Peyton Manning wins an MVP and/or a Super Bowl with Denver, there will be fans who will never forgive the franchise for letting him go.

If Robert Griffin proves to be not just incrementally better than Luck, but becomes the next Steve Young or John Elway, then the Colts will forever look like fools for passing on him.

The fact is that short of being an all-time great himself, there are still plenty of ways for Luck to wind up looking like a failure for the Colts.

The consequences for failure are always high in the NFL, but Indy fans are not uniformly happy about the selection of Luck. The franchise hopes to contain the discontent, but if Luck turns out to be something less than everything they promised, there will be years of recrimination and bad blood in Indianapolis.


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Manny Ramirez and the Most Famous Hair in Oakland A's History

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Sunrise in the NFC East: The Division's Top Links on June 4, 2012

All four NFC East teams are back on the practice field today for the first of four organized team activities. Here's the latest buzz as we jump into June in the NFL's most popular division.

Dallas Cowboys

Josh Ellis of DallasCowboys.com wonders which veteran Cowboy will become the next cap casualty in Dallas. He mentions Miles Austin, Doug Free, Jason Witten and Jay Ratliff, among others.

Anthony Spencer talks about wanting a long-term deal with the Cowboys, per Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio. Don't we all. Assuming he doesn't sign this offseason, Spencer will probably have to improve his sack numbers in 2012, or he might be disappointed by what he fetches on the open market in 2013.

New York Giants

Paul Tierney of Giants 101 has three primary reasons why 2012 will be Osi Umenyiora's last season with the Giants. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion now that, barring a dramatic turn of events, Osi finally hits free agency in 2013.

Umenyiora can focus on football now for the first time in years. The peace of mind (via NJ.com) could lead to bigger and better things for the Giants pass rush.

Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson won't be practicing with the Eagles this week due to a "family matter," according to Philly.com.

Dave Spadaro of PhiladelphiaEagles.com writes that he's having trouble finding an area of weakness in rookie linebacker Mychal Kendricks' game. He also says he'll also be "shocked" if Nate Allen doesn't have a fantastic season. Large expectations for that defense.

Washington Redskins

Rich Tandler of CSN Washington wonders if Jim Haslett will spend some time looking over his shoulder at new defensive backs coach Raheem Morris, who's been making waves early on.

Back from a torn ACL, is Jarvis Jenkins ready to pick up where he left off as a newfound sensation in Washington (per The Washington Post)? 


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Tiger Woods: Premature Comeback Talk Will Sidetrack Tiger at US Open

On Sunday, he was the Tiger Woods of old. He was fist-pumping after big shots (and, for once, there were big shots), he was jovial with the media, he was smiling and making jokes, telling them he wasn't necessarily the Tiger of old but he certainly felt older.

And Tiger was right about that one thing—he's not the Tiger Woods of old. Not yet. We learned one important thing from the Masters earlier this year: It's too early to call the comeback complete. It's not a comeback till you've won one of the Big Ones.

Tiger's performance at the Memorial this weekend was one of the most encouraging performances we've seen from him in over two years. He was consistent from the get-go, fighting his way up the leaderboard until the final day, when he made one of the greatest shots of his career that ultimately led to a nine-under finish and a 14th major victory.

It took three birdies on the final four holes—the most spectacular of which came after a 50-foot flop shot from a terrible lie on the 16th hole—but he garnered his second win of the year, his first since the Arnold Palmer and the 73rd of his career.

Now, with just over a week remaining until the beginning of the US Open, Tiger is riding higher than he's been since everything crumbled for him 2 1/2 years ago. It was a similar case in late March, when Tiger emerged victorious for the first time in over two years and suddenly became the favorite to win the Masters.

And then he finished in 40th place.

Since then, Tiger has missed the cut at the Wells Fargo and has finished 40th at the Players Championship. He looked so good at the Memorial that it's impossible to avoid contemplating a US Open win and what it would mean for his resurgence, but it's still too soon, just like it was too soon before the Masters.

The signs are more encouraging than they've been since Tiger's epic downfall. It's the first time he's managed to win two tournaments in such close proximity since his career threatened to entirely fall apart. But winning the Arnold Palmer or even the Memorial isn't the same as winning the Masters or the US Open.

Maybe it was the pressure that got to Tiger this year at Augusta (probable), or maybe it was just the level of competition. And while there's no discounting the importance of Tiger's win on Sunday, it was in a tournament that champions like Phil Mickelson withdraw from in the name of preparing for the important ones—like the US Open.

Whenever Tiger wins these days, it's hard not to think about what it means for his future and his legacy. Most likely, it's hard even for him to avoid such thoughts.

When he won the Arnold Palmer and then failed miserably at the Masters, it was clear that something—whether it was all of the comeback talk or the level of competition—was too much for him to take, and as a result, thinking that Sunday's win means he's back or he's ready to truly compete for a US Open title is premature.

It's a good sign, but Tiger isn't back. We can't start talking about that until it's June 17 and his name is at the top of the leaderboard.


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The 2012 Boston Red Sox Resurgence Continues: 5 Signs of Prolonged Success

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Although the Boston Red Sox are currently in last place in the AL East standings, they’re only three games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the division. Their run differential is fourth best in the league at plus-22, and they’ve gone 16-7 in their past 23 games to bring their season record to 28-26. 

The success of the Sox will not stop there, however. Here are five in depth reasons why Boston will continue to play winning baseball.

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Abelimages/Getty Images

After starting the year off as the first pitcher in MLB history to allow at least five runs in his first six starts, Clay Buchholz has strung together some strong pitching performances. After his latest two starts in which he allowed only four runs in 15 innings, Buchholz lowered an ERA that was 9.09 on May 6 to his current figure of 6.58, with a 3.98 ERA in five starts during that span.

On NESN’s telecast during Buchholz’s most recent performance—an eight inning outing in which he allowed two runs against the Blue Jays—Jerry Remy noted that his changeup was much better than it had been in the beginning of the year.

Buchholz has also been throwing the pitch more.

In his past two starts, he threw his changeup 19.4 and 21.6 percent of the time, easily the two highest percentages of the season. Those ratios are more in line with his 2010 numbers, during which he won 17 games with a 2.33 ERA and consistently used his changeup in the 17-23 percent range.

Additionally, Buchholz’s ERA has been inflated by bad luck this season. He has an unusually high BABIP of .326, which is much higher than his .287 career average and the .294 MLB average. BABIP is a statistic that pitchers don’t have much control over, and it can vary from year to year. In Pedro Martinez’s great campaign of 1999, for example, batters hit .323 on balls in play against him, but that figure decreased to .236 the year after.

Buchholz has also been negatively affected by a 68.5 LOB percent, which measures the ratio of runners stranded on base by the pitcher. Over the past two seasons, that figure has been at 79 percent for the Red Sox starting pitcher.

Furthermore, Buchholz has an 18.8 percent home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB)—much higher than the league average and his career average, both at 11 percent.

Buchholz’s numbers will continue to get better as these statistics regress, and as he continues to feel more confident on the mound.

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Darren McCollester/Getty Images

Adrian Gonzalez is currently hitting .269/.322/.417, which if continued through the year would be his lowest figures in all three categories in a full season. He’s hit only four home runs on the year, which puts him on pace for 12—a far cry from the 40 he put up playing half his games in cavernous Petco Park with the Padres in 2009.

Yet, after early season struggles, the Sox have played well even with Gonzalez barely hitting out of either the third or cleanup spots in the Sox order.

So what happens if/when he breaks out of this funk?

For Sox fans waiting for that to happen, it may be sooner than you think. Albert Pujols has recently been hitting the cover off the ball after a terrible start to the season, and similar to Pujols, Gonzalez can be a streaky hitter, especially with his power. Last year Gonzalez had stretches of seven home runs in eight games and five in three.

It’s only a matter of time before an outburst happens again.

The Sox first basemen only has a 6.3 percent HR/FB ratio, which is far below his 16.5 percent career rate. That number is bound to go up, as is his BABIP. Last year he hit .380 on balls in play, and while that number is not sustainable, his .321 figure in 2012 should increase in the coming weeks.

Gonzalez is actually hitting the ball with more authority this year, as his line drive ratio of 23.2 percent is the highest of his career. His ground ball ratio of 38.7 percent is his lowest since 2007 and his 38.1 percent fly ball ratio is a full six points better than last year.

Once those hits start falling, and his fly balls start carrying, Gonzalez should see a spike in his production. 

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Rob Carr/Getty Images

After a rough start to the season, the Sox bullpen has been fantastic of late, and continued success in the later innings should lead to some key wins as the Sox look to climb out of last place.

A terrible first couple of weeks that saw Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon each get rocked in the closers role contributed to a 6.10 April ERA by Sox relievers that was the worst in the majors. They turned that around in May, as the bullpen’s 2.37 ERA was third best in MLB.

Aceves has been great as the closer ever since, allowing five runs while getting no outs against the Yankees on April 21. Since then, he’s converted 12 of 13 save opportunities while sporting a 2.28 ERA and striking out 25 batters in 23.2 innings.

Scott Atchison has been lights out with a 0.89 ERA, and Matt Albers and Andrew Miller both have sub-3.00 ERAs. Miller, a former first-round pick of the Detroit Tigers, may finally be delivering on the hype that made him the key prospect in the Miguel Cabrera trade, as he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings.

There are no signs that the success of the bullpen should slow down at all, and that’s with key members missing. Andrew Bailey, whom the Sox gave up Josh Reddick for to be their closer this offseason, will eventually return, as will Mark Melancon, who has been lights out at the Sox AAA affiliate ever since being demoted. The return of those two arms will improve the bullpen even more than where it’s currently at.

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Jim Rogash/Getty Images

David Ortiz started the year off on a tear, hitting .405 in April with a .726 SLG. But those numbers masked a poor May performance in which Big Papi only hit .250. Over the course of seven games in late May, Ortiz only had one extra base hit and saw his season average fall to .305.

But Ortiz has recently picked up where he left in April, hitting at a .455 clip in his last six games, with three home runs and six total extra base hits. And advanced statistics show no signs of Ortiz slowing down his season pace.

Ortiz’s .319 BABIP is right in line with his marks of .313 and .321 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. His HR/FB ratio of 19.4 percent is just a tick over his career mark of 18.6 percent, while his line drive percentage is the highest it’s been since 2005. Additionally, Ortiz has cut back on his strikeouts this year, with an 11.9 percent K rate being the lowest of his career.

Ortiz is often regarded as hitting his best when he has his power to the opposite field, which he showed against Toronto this past weekend with a bomb to left center against the Jays on Friday. And Ortiz has been known to lay down the bunt this year to beat the shift, which gets him easy hits and makes teams second-guess their decision to shift.

After a few sub-par years from 2008-2010 when he couldn’t hit better than .270, Ortiz is back to being a great hitter. This year is no different, and he should be able to keep up the pace of his superb season. While most of May showed signs of a drop-off, Ortiz has come back strong and looks to have another fine season as he builds his Hall of Fame resume.

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Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Before the season began, if someone told you that of the two lefties in the Sox starting rotation, one would have an ERA a full run better than the other a third of the way into the season, you would have almost certainly guessed Jon Lester would be the better of the two. But as it stands on June 4, Lester sports a 4.79 ERA, while first time rotation member Felix Doubront is at 3.75.

Lester’s performance will certainly improve as the season progresses. His FIP—fielding independent pitching—is a stat that measures a pitchers success by only what he can control: home runs, walks and strikeouts. Lester's is 4.02, which is much more in line with his actual performance on the year. His xFIP, a statistic which standardizes a pitcher’s HR/FB ratio to league average and is calibrated on an ERA scale similar to FIP, is 3.93.

Lester has been hurt by a 65.7 LOB percent, which is a full 10 percentage points below his career average and also far below the league average of 72 percent. His BABIP is also about 20 points higher than it has been over the past two seasons.

Once those numbers normalize, Lester should be on his way to another fine season.

Meanwhile, Felix Doubront has pitched great to begin the year, and there’s no reason to expect it not to continue.

Doubront is 6-2 on the year with a 3.75 ERA, and he has thrown seven quality starts—the third highest figure in the league. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning, a big reason why his strong start is sustainable. His xFIP is actually lower than his ERA at 3.51, which is best in the Sox starting rotation.

Doubront is quite possibly the best fourth starter in all of baseball, and he will certainly continue to help Boston as they look to make a playoff run.

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Saturday, June 9, 2012

New York Mets Five Most Unlikely Heroes so Far in 2012

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The New York Mets are proving themselves to be a different team this season. They're currently 31-23, third in the NL East, and keeping up an impressive 19-11 home record.

Oh, and Johan Santana just threw the first no-hitter in the franchise's history. Mets fans have reason to believe that this could be the season they've been waiting for.

Here's a few of the Mets' unlikely heroes so far in 2012.

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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Jeremy Hefner may not seem spectacular on paper, but he led the Mets to an impressive win against their rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies, on May 29. Hefner has four strikeouts in six innings but also did something that some pitchers never do in their careers: Hefner hit a home run that proved to be a deciding factor in their win.

The 26-year-old Hefner is still young, and with a 1-2 record and 5.60 ERA, he should be looking to improve. But if the Mets have this young guy on the mound or at the plate during the right opportunities, he could be a shocking addition to an already impressive Mets lineup.

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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Something that the Mets have been doing this season that helps them stand out is starting players that they think deserve a chance. Omar Quintanilla was called up from Triple-A Buffalo due to numerous injuries surrounding the Mets shortstop position. 

Ruben Tejada, Ronny Cedeno and Justin Turner were all injured and unable to play, so Quintanilla stepped in.

The El Paso, the Texas native had three hits and two runs with four at-bats. He has five runs in his last five games and is batting an impressive .313.

With Quintanilla in the lineup, he brings a new flavor to the shortstop position and he's a powerful addition to the lineup.

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Mike Stobe/Getty Images

On Friday night, the Mets shocked the MLB world when Johan Santana threw a no-hitter against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving the Mets their first no-hitter thrown in franchise history. He threw a career high 134 pitches in the win, and after missing the 2011 season due to surgery on his pitching shoulder, it's clear that he is healed.

Johan Santana is back. He has given the Mets the boost they needed to put them in a different category among other teams. The Mets are now seen as a threat in the NL East. Santana's eight-strikeout night was exhilarating to watch and seemed to boost the morale for the NY Mets and their fans.

With Santana's impressive outing, the San Diego Padres are now the only team in the MLB that has not had a pitcher throw a no-hitter.

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Al Bello/Getty Images

In his second season with the Mets, Scott Hairston shows true potential. He has a .318 BA in the last 10 games and three home runs in the last three.

In late April, Hairston hit for a cycle against the Colorado Rockies, and even though the Mets fell to Colorado 18-9 that game, the Texas native's performance stood out. 

Hairston has had obvious up and down spurts as a player this season, but if he can remain consistent with the hits and homers, he could continue to be an unlikely hero for the boys in blue and orange.

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Mike Stobe/Getty Images

When Ike Davis was injured last season, Lucas Duda took over the first basemen position. This year Duda finds himself playing right field and he has been a positive impact with a glove or a bat in his hand.

The 26-year-old from Riverside, California is off to an impressive start so far in the 2011-2012 season. Duda has eight home runs, leading the New York Mets roster. He also has 46 hits and 21 home runs in 52 games.

Duda started off the season slowly, but he has picked up his game ever since. With a 162-game season, slumps are normal, and it seems that Duda may have found his stride as of late. 

The Mets should make sure they incorporate Duda as much as possible, as he is one of a few of the unlikely heroes the Mets have laid their eyes on so far this season.

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